G11 SUPER GIO
123
03
CHALLENGE MISSIONmodels, assumptions, sensitivity, and validation

models, assumptions, sensitivity, and validation

INDEPENDENT DEFENSEINDEPENDENT TRANSFER

Validate outside the model

A flood simulation predicts depths at five gauges: 0.8,1.1,1.4,0.9,1.7 m. Observed depths are 0.9,1.0,2.2,0.8,1.8. Gauge 3 sits near a blocked culvert absent from the model.

  1. Four gauges fit within 0.1 m.
  2. One structured residual has a physical explanation.
  3. Revision should add the culvert, not average the error away.

What is the best validation response?

MODELSimulation Assumption Map
DATA
PROVEChoose with evidence
CLUE

Pause. Find what matters. Then make your move.